Recently, I was speaking with a Raytheon employee about a simple 401k strategy and the investment options inside his company’s plan. He mentioned that he only invests in the Northern Stock Index, which is an S&P 500 Index fund. He’s been doing this for years because he feels that none of the investment options available to him can outperform the index consistently. This is probably true, but investing only in the S&P 500 doesn’t alleviate his major concern.
The reality is that the market will probably experience a deep correction before his retirement. After the -49% correction in 2000 and another -56% correction in 2008, his concern is quite legitimate. In May, only 37% of the 100 most widely held mutual funds within 401k’s outperformed the S&P 500; eight of those that did outperform were also index-like funds. Longer term studies suggest that my friend was correct about most funds not beating the S&P 500.